«UkrAgroConsult»: Quality Of Ukrainian Wheat Will Be Lower This Year

Online, September 17, 2010 (Newswire.com) - Commodity Market Analyst «UkrAgroConsult» notes that in June and the first half of July the conditions for the ripening and harvesting of the early grain crops significantly deteriorated. The mid-June heat fell on the period of formation and ripening of grains. These conditions with temperature rising above 30°C (86°F) some days, brought a faster grain ripening which, in turn, ended up in the seed being small and puny.

The ripening of the winter barley in the south happened a week earliear than the usual schedule. However, the barley harvesting was not able to start earlier ―the untimely rains began. As barley harvesting was dragged out, rapeseed and barley harvesting coinciding in time. With the machinery deficit, the preference was given to rapeseed for its margins are at least 300-400% higher than those of barley. Such priorities can lead to even larger losses of barley during the harvest.

Given factors led to the fact that UkrAgroConsult decreased its estimation of the harvest of barley in 2010 approximately by 9% to 10,2-10.4 MMT (11.6 MMT in 2009.). The analysis of the trend of productivity in last years shows that in proportion to the advance of the harvest to the center of the country, grain yields gradually increase. UkrAgroConsult is still hoping for some increase in the yields in July.

Weather had affected negatively wheat also, however, to a lesser degree. The wheat yields at the beginning of its harvest shows a pretty good level for the start, and it promises to increase. Nevertheless, UkrAgroConsult has decreased its estimation of the 2010 harvest of wheat to 18,6 MMT (20.8 in 2009.).

According to the estimations of the farmers of the southern region, practically the entire wheat in the south has feed quality. In the center of Ukraine the quality is better. For example, in Poltava region the portion of milling wheat reaches 70%. The specialists of UkrAgroConsult believe that as a whole in the country the portion of milling wheat will make up to 25-30% (approximately 40-45% in 2009.).

The May rains and plenty of heat in June contributed to a good growth of corn. The supplies of moisture in the soil are sufficient, which is very important for the formation of high yields. Among the negative factors it is necessary to note the heat in the period of pollination. Heat can lead to the sterility of pollen and the reduction in the yields. However, it is too early to make any conclusions regarding corn and UkrAgroConsult left its forecast of the harvest of corn without the changes―12,3 MMT.

The estimation of the total 2010 grain production is lowered by 1,2 MMT to 43,52 MMT compared to UkrAgroConsult June numbers (45.4mln.tonnes in 2009.).

UkrAgroConsult
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